Vulnerability assessment and Threat assessment for reality based training (RBT)

Author: Odhinn Kohout

Training must define parameters for a “worst case scenario” or the possibilities (mathematically) are endless.

Define the threat. Is it possible, probable, inevitable and imminent?

What are the capabilities of the attacker? Is this known? (There is a more prominent separation between the Police and Military regarding this question)

What would be the impact or consequences of the threat? A risk management assessment prior to actually training would need to address these points as well.

What methodology are you teaching to counter the threat? Is it testable, reproducible, documented and defensible?

Reducing risk which will help to mitigate the consequences of the critical incident is a realistic an achievable goal ONCE all the prior research has been completed to identify “specific areas” of vulnerability to the Officer. This is rarely done. Random and disconnected techniques confuse the student, especially if they are in an initial learning phase and cannot draw on actual experiences for comparative analysis. 

Through the use of critical assessment, Trainers can give students a way to prioritize the kit that they wear in conjunction with impact factors to their health and safety (Ferry 2009) in the same way that this matrix was created for protecting key infrastructure from terrorist attacks.

If the rating system was 0-3(with 0 being no risk and 3 having catastrophic results) an issued firearm would be 3 on this scale. Now that this piece of kit has been identified as a 3 ask yours-self how competent are you in handgun retention tactics?

If you are an Instructor define if your syllabus adheres to this simple matrix example. This can be taken a step further and it may poke some uncomfortable holes in your current curriculum.

Earlier in the article we looked at both the capabilities of the Attacker and the probability variances associated with a “specific” worst case scenario. How can this (training)be immediately incorporated by the Instructor Cadre into a program that will produce measurable results and elevate Officer safety in conjunction with Departmental needs.

Example:  Some of the Officers in the class are assigned to a region of the city where there is high drug traffic and periodic shootings from gangs involved in turf wars. Since we have established the familiarity of firearms to gang-members,( the category of “capabilities of the attacker”) there is now some hard evidence to derive a training platform. This training could already be in place and only need a proper “context” to connect the student to the program being presented. A 10 minute pre-chat lecture addressing the importance of hyper awareness and continued vigilance due to the greater risk which has been identified/established because of the continued gang activity in the area is a great buy in for learning with your Officers. Scenarios that are incorporated later on can build on this and your students will get the benefit of theory, practice and stress inoculation working together to build a layered approach to defensive tactics which combine the cognitive and physical realms under one framework.

Use some assessment techniques prior to teaching your next class. Remain open minded..learning should be a perpetual state for Instructors.

Train Hard, Train Smart!

Operating inside the Attacker: Part Two/ OODA Components (Observe)

Author: Odhinn Kohout

John Boyds Loop as “he” described it is not a simplistic formula based on one concentric ring from which the principles of the OODA loop self-perpetuate. He was a much deeper strategist than that and understood the complexity of the evolving battlefield. In this article we will analyze the key aspects which make the first component of the OODA loop being “Observation.” I will NOT be discussing these points from a social interaction standpoint or societal needs but from the moment prior to violence occurring. These articles are for Police and Military applications so as you read; put yourself in a scenario of being engulfed in the chaos of violence as this is the contextual basis for the BLOG.

Boyd broke down his “observational theory” into;

Unfolding Circumstances-

What preceded the attack? This also includes being lured into an ambush type of situation in which visible threat cues may have been difficult to see at first.

What would be an example of this?

There is a knock at your door around 10pm. You take a quick look through your window and see a young woman there who is by herself, You open the door and after some initial words two men who are flanking her on either side (that you did not see) push their way into your house. Two firearms are suddenly produced.

In Boyd’s Observation category the “event” itself is in a state of change and the operator must have the ability to quickly adapt and use observation during this time for a cognitive response which takes into consideration these “unfolding circumstances.”

 Unfolding Interaction with Environment-

A confined space would be one example of this in a setting that has many obstacles (furniture) which may impede the creation of a reactionary gap. What if we take this from the standpoint of an offensive mindset which most certainly was what Boyd was asking us to do.

What would be an example of this?

You are in a house getting information from a male occupant.

The attacker grabs a screwdriver from the counter and attempts to stab it into your neck. You instinctively flinch throwing your arms and hands in front of your face for protection. As you step back you almost lose your balance as you hit a chair which was behind you. Without thinking you grab the chair and throw it at the Attacker. He is momentarily stunned as he moves back away from you.

In this example the environment played a crucial part from both the perspective of the Attacker (weapon of opportunity/screwdriver) and the Officer (used the environment as the event unfolded).

Outside Information-

Do you have previous knowledge or intel which may assist you during/prior to the event as part of “initial” observational stage of Boyd’s Loop.

What would be an example of this?

A Soldier is given a lead regarding of a possible cache of weapons including IEDs but there are rumors that the source may also have links to the local insurgents. He and his team meet with the man in the evening who promises to take them to the location in exchange for a sum of money.

There is enough “outside information” in this scenario to assume a high probability of risk. The Soldiers would then take all the necessary precautions and have a heighted sense of awareness and vigilance for the “observational phase” of the loop.

On the Police side this could be the previous arrests and convictions of the party that they are on route to speak with. Does he have propensity for weapons or violence against the Police? This “outside information” can be used to move “faster through the loop” as there are anticipated concerns from the Officers perspective.

Implicit Guidance & Control-

Even though we are not at the “ACT” stage of the OODA loop the “guidance and control” is akin to confidence developed through training. John Boyd was a fighter pilot (and extraordinarily skilled) so there are no other inferences which can be drawn from this. Pre-conditioned responses which can be relied upon to be the correct “intuitive response” can only be developed through high repetition and Boyd understood this.

Feedback from actions taken-

Bruce Lee used to say that fighting was analogous to water in that water could take the shape of whatever it was contained as well as being free-flowing or as hard as rock.

Boyd read voraciously and incorporated Eastern philosophies such as those found in Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” treatise. As a Pilot, Boyd instinctively understood that feedback from the actions you were taking could give you a tremendous advantage if they were continually incorporated to compress time against the opponent shortening the window for his own decision making processes.

Why do you think that his nickname was “40 second Boyd” after all…

Train Smart Gentlemen!

Right-Wing Islamic Jihadists increasing use of edged weapons for attacks

Author: Odhinn Kohout

 “A collection of shotguns, knives and samurai swords was discovered in the trunk of a car carrying six British jihadists who plotted to kill and maim hundreds of people.”
  

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2317029/English-Defence-League-terror-plot-6-Islamic-extremists-plead-guilty-EDL-rally-bomb-attack-plan.html#ixzz2UDL2oJr4

With the recent savage killing of British Soldier Lee Rigby (2nd Battalion/ The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers) it should be pointed out that edged weapons have been a consistent choice for Islamic Terrorists as they are readily accessible and require little to no training to be proficient.

The Orlando man from Chechnya who was shot by the FBI had pulled a knife on an Agent who was questioning him about his connection to the Tsarnaev Brothers and the triple homicide in 2011 in which three roommates had their throats cut out.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2882768-orlando-man-killed-by-fbi-agent-was-questioned-in-boston-marathon-bombings/


Tamerlan Tsarnaev of the Boston Bombing attack who was friends with Ibragim Todashev (shot by FBI) and is now suspected by Police who have re-opened the case to have been part of this murder in which knives were used as the primary weapon.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/23/man-killed-by-fbi-in-orlando-may-have-been-involved-in-boston-triple-murder-tamerlan-tsarnaev-also-suspect-in-2011-slaying/

Knife defense training is a crucial aspect to front-line training and many people forget that outside of the West the knife has a long and revered place of importance in many cultures.

 Make some time…in your schedule to seek out some professionals in the area of edged weapon defense and incorporate this training into your use of force curriculum.

Be safe Gentlemen!

Operating inside the Attacker: Part One (Compressing time in CQC)

The compression of time in an attack is more often than not omitted when teaching students or not understood conceptually.

 

 

Your ability to navigate time is as essential to winning the fight as is the offensive mindset. When an Attacker pulls a weapon on you (we will use a knife in this example) he begins to limit or compress the time available to you in order to act. This happens because your initial reaction is slower than his action and you are already moving slower in the loop (Boyd) amidst the finite amount of time made available to you.

The reactionary gap (in case you are now thinking about this as a whole equation) requires time…in order to work. But what if, there is not enough time for the creation of this gap? This is where the breakdown of CQC occurs for front line Officers in during real time conflict and they are left to luck and improvisation to survive. 

The creation of what I refer to as “pockets of time” is crucial if you want to perform at a higher level than the person in-front of you with bad intentions. Before an altercation occurs you should be already starting the analytical process and gathering as much intel as is avail.

Where are his hands?

What is in his hands?

These first two questions are a good place to start. Kicks are much slower than the criminal accessing a hidden weapon so identify the hands as soon as you can, to pick up on pre-cursors to an attack this way. Identifying a threat cue prior to the attack…enables you to start moving faster through time than your opponent.

Your flinch response…MUST be followed by an ACTION from preconditioned variables (Pavlov) available to you on an unconscious competence level (Burch). These decisive actions create intervals of time in which transitional use of force options OR the reactionary gap can be employed. Simply put, you become the aggressor (through a trained response) as opposed to the victim (unconscious incompetence).

None of this can be easily accomplished without a commitment to a training regime…Yes; I must always bring you back to this issue as it is the crucible from which we will continue these discussions on “operating inside the Attacker.”

Be safe Guys!

Intent

Author: Odhinn Kohout

There is a very old saying attributed to ancient feudal Japan which states:

“Wounds heal but regret lasts a lifetime…”

 

 

I believe that this sums up the Warrior ethos quite nicely. Fear, if the outcome of death could be removed from the equation offers an existential perspective to view the sum of all that we have learned up to that point and to see how we measure against its effects. To quote one of the main points of Zoroastrianism it allows a long stare into the abyss with the hope that the abyss does not stare back.

Unfortunately in the Police and Military world the esoteric nature of fear is a luxury that is not often afforded. Fear can inhibit decisive actions and cloud judgment. It can take away abilities that were taken for granted the second before and replace it with ineptitude.

As a trainer I often hear this common response from students; “I would do this (insert phrase) if confronted with that (variable). The problem lies in HOW they have come to believe in this outcome? Short of divine intervention, the assumption that correct reaction is a preordained response is not rooted in any form of scientific truths.

Intent is a powerful motivator to see a task through to its completion. Intent is something that bad people do not have to take courses or training to develop as it is always at the ready. The Officer who drops his guard with a criminal and allows themselves to slip into repetitious and familiar patterns are usually oblivious to the signs that are pre-cursors to an imminent attack. An improper patdown or search can fail to find the hidden weapon until you are forced to confront it and the ramifications which accompany it.

Consistent training that not only targets the known aspects of the job but encompasses the unknown and “what ifs?” and helps create neural pathways that the cognitive process can draw upon as a possible solution in a critical incident. I tell my own students that it is extremely difficult to just improvise when a blade is produced and being thrust at you. Your Attacker is using violence as a delivery system for their intent and your ability is counter it lies not only in the cerebral (offensive mindset) but in your prior training OR lack thereof.

Breaking your training into separate components for your classes in order to validate their effectiveness and making comprehension much more testable will assist them greatly should they be faced with real violent intent in the field. As an example I have seen many classes in which an arrest/control position is taught but usually from a position advantageous to the Officer. One way to kick start your training is to show “one” arrest/control technique from 5 different positions. The students are not learning 5 different tactics which must be memorized but given a chance to get high repetitions in from a variety of angles. 

If at the end of your class your students can walk away knowing 3 new things with proficiency (that directly impacts Officer safety) you have done your job as an Instructor. Intent in the context of this article is NOT “good intentions” but a solid framework (training) carefully constructed which provides resources that can be drawn upon offering up practical solutions.

Train smart Guys!